Sports bets can be extremely profitable if an individual know the secrets the particular “smart money” bettors make use of to consistently make cash. One of the greatest secrets that wise money bettors use will be knowing when NOT to help bet.

Here’s a excellent instance. I actually analyzed typically the Rest of the world Las vegas vs. Louisville activity, and concluded that will West Va had the edge in the activity. Yet , I actually also came to the realization that there was a lot of random and unstable factors, and recommended to my clients that they do not guess on that game. Here is our analysis I released in advance of the game:

West California vs . Louisville

This game features all the signs of being one involving the best games associated with the year, using both teams coming into the game 7-0. It’s #3 rated West Virginia compared to. #5 ranked Louisville, both together with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Last year’s game was a classic, together with Western Virginia coming rear from becoming down big in the next 1 / 4 to winning in overtime.

So what’s the action search like this year?

If this match were turning into played with a neutral field, West Florida might probably be a 4-6 stage favorite. Since this game is at Louisville, WVU is a 1-point under dog. Let’s see if can make sense…

West Virginia can be on an unprecedented rotate. That they haven’t lost given that March. 1, 2005, heading 14-0 since they shed to Va Tech. In the last two seasons they’re 13-5 ATS likewise. They’re also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 video games overall, and 8-2 OBTAIN THE in their very last 10 ROAD games.

These types of are some very amazing stats that tilt typically the scales in favor connected with WVU regarding tonight’s games. Plus, often the added bonus offer is that WVU is definitely GETTING +1 point. This will likely not seem to be like substantially, but in a near match-up this way, that spare point can make the difference between a new push plus a loss.

But you may be wondering what with regards to Louisville?

Louisville’s statistics may be almost as good like WVU’s -except when it comes to Louisville in the point spread. In their previous 10 games, Louisville is merely 4-6 ATS. The fact that said, Louisville is even now 7-3 ATS within their previous 10 home video games.

And if you’re leaning in direction of WVU, here’s a frightening stat… Louisville hasn’t misplaced at home since January 18, 2003! During this existing run Louisville is hitting 49. 4 points for each game at home, while hitting only stopping 15. 6 points per game at home. In case a person failed to do the math concepts, that means given that their particular last home damage they have already averaged beating their particular opponents simply by about 34 items per game.

In addition outstanding, the average line during these games has only been 21 points. That method Louisville has beaten often the spread, on average, by 13 factors per game at home considering that the year 2003.

Wow… how can anyone go against that?

Here’s the way…

Nearly all of those stats have been built up during the july 2004 season. This year, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to great than great. They have already had recent games by which they’ve only scored 35, 23, 24 points. And the video games weren’t against Oh Street. or Michigan. They will had been against Cincinnati, Syracuse, in addition to Kansas St.

บาคาร่า is that will this is still a good close video game to call. Yet the things i look for is West Virginia’s protection to carry the moment. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, in addition to Kansas St. can all hold Louisville under 40 points, then there’s virtually no reason to think WVU can’t hold them to the low to mid 20’s. My honest recommendation is usually to lay off this specific game and definitely not guess at all. There usually are better game titles this weekend break with more simple strengths.

The final score on this game was Louisville 44, West Virginia 34. Lousiville won because West Florida had 6 fumbles and allowed Lousiville to go back the punt for the TD. The results was the fact that West Virginia’s edge weren’t so big that they could still win right after producing so many mistakes. By not betting on this video game, people significant regarding wagering saved money these people can offer better apply on approaching games.